The Black Swan

Review of: The Black Swan

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On 28.05.2020
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The Black Swan

veröffentlichte er unter dem Titel The Black Swan ein eigenes Buch zu dem Begriff mit Betrachtungen jenseits der Börse. Taleb bezeichnet wesentliche. Im Jahr schrieb der Essayist, Forscher und ehemalige Finanzmathematiker Nassim Nicholas Taleb sein Buch „The Black Swan“. Taleb. Black Swan – Wikipedia.

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Der Schwarze Schwan: Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse ist ein Buch des Publizisten und Börsenhändlers Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nach Taleb bezeichnet ein „Schwarzer Schwan“ ein Ereignis, das selten und höchst unwahrscheinlich ist. Black Swan – Wikipedia. veröffentlichte er unter dem Titel The Black Swan ein eigenes Buch zu dem Begriff mit Betrachtungen jenseits der Börse. Taleb bezeichnet wesentliche. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | Taleb, Nassim Nicholas | ISBN: | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto, Band 2). In seinem Buch «The Black Swan» definiert der exzentrische Intellektuelle den Schwarzen Schwan als Ereignis mit schwerwiegenden. Das letzte Schwarze Schwan-Ereignis in der Wirtschaft war der Zusammenbruch der Lehmann-Bank im Jahr Ein Black Swan ist ein.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | Taleb, Nassim Nicholas | ISBN: | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und. Das letzte Schwarze Schwan-Ereignis in der Wirtschaft war der Zusammenbruch der Lehmann-Bank im Jahr Ein Black Swan ist ein. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto, Band 2). Nina versteckt die Leiche im Badezimmer, dann geht sie zurück auf die Bühne. Zu diesen Ereignissen zählen unter anderem die Entdeckung OceanS 8 Stream German antibakteriellen Eigenschaften von Penizillin und die Entdeckung Amerikas auf der Suche nach einem neuen Weg nach Indien. Newsletter bestellen. Weiterer Sport. Deutsche Kino Krokodil - Kino Für Russischen Film. Unter dem zunehmenden Druck verschlimmert sich Ninas Dermatillomanie ; sie kratzt sich nachts im Schlaf unbewusst die Schulter blutig Kinox.To Serien beginnt zu halluzinieren. September in die Kinos; es Kurtisane Vorführungen bei diversen Filmfestivals. Blick zurück. Ein Black Swan ist ein unvorhergesehenes Ereignis, welches wirtschaftlichen Money Monster German Streamcloud eine entscheidende Wende gibt.

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The newspaper then compared it to the ballet film The Red Shoes in having "a nightmarish quality Black Swan had a limited release in select cities in North America on December 3, , in 18 theaters [46] and was a surprise box office success.

The per location average was the second highest for the opening weekend of behind The King's Speech. The website's critical consensus reads, "Bracingly intense, passionate, and wildly melodramatic, Black Swan glides on Darren Aronofsky's bold direction—and a bravura performance from Natalie Portman.

In September , Entertainment Weekly reported that based on reviews from the film's screening at the Venice Film Festival, "[ Black Swan ] is already set to be one of the year's most love-it-or-hate-it movies.

Some found its theatricality maddening, but most declared themselves 'swept away'. Kurt Loder of Reason magazine called the film "wonderfully creepy", and wrote that "it's not entirely satisfying; but it's infused with the director's usual creative brio, and it has a great dark gleaming look.

Goodridge described Portman's performance, "[She] is captivating as Nina Goodridge praised Libatique's cinematography with the dance scenes and the psychologically "unnerving" scenes: "It's a mesmerising psychological ride that builds to a gloriously theatrical tragic finale as Nina attempts to deliver the perfect performance.

Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter gave the film a mixed review. He wrote, "[ Black Swan ] is an instant guilty pleasure, a gorgeously shot, visually complex film whose badness is what's so good about it.

You might howl at the sheer audacity of mixing mental illness with the body-fatiguing, mind-numbing rigors of ballet, but its lurid imagery and a hellcat competition between two rival dancers is pretty irresistible.

The critic said of the thematic mashup, "Aronofsky The film has been criticized for its portrayal of ballet and ballet dancers.

Rojo called the film "lazy It doesn't show why ballet is so important to us — why we would want to try so hard. Amy Westcott is credited as the costume designer and received several award nominations.

A publicized controversy arose regarding the question of who had designed 40 ballet costumes for Portman and the dancers.

An article in the British newspaper The Independent suggested those costumes had actually been created by Rodarte 's Kate and Laura Mulleavy.

Furthermore, the corps ballet's costumes were designed by Zack Brown for the American Ballet Theatre , and slightly adapted by Westcott and her costume design department.

Westcott said: "Controversy is too complimentary a word for two people using their considerable self-publicising resources to loudly complain about their credit once they realized how good the film is.

We know that Natalie Portman studied ballet as a kid and had a year of intensive training for the film, but that doesn't add up to being a ballerina.

However, it seems that many people believe that Portman did her own dancing in Black Swan. Black Swan appeared on many critics' top ten lists of and is frequently considered to be one of the best films of the year.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Not to be confused with the swashbuckler film The Black Swan film or Black swan theory. Mike Medavoy Arnold W.

Messer Brian Oliver Scott Franklin. Release date. Running time. Main article: Black Swan dance double controversy. Main article: List of accolades received by Black Swan.

British Board of Film Classification. November 19, Retrieved September 21, The Korea Herald. McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Retrieved February 4, Box Office Mojo. Retrieved September 10, USA Today. Archived from the original on August 21, MTV Movies Blog. Archived from the original on August 30, Archived from the original on August 6, Retrieved August 6, Archived from the original on August 28, Archived from the original on August 4, Retrieved December 11, Retrieved December 23, Press Association.

September 1, Archived from the original on September 1, Archived from the original on August 22, The New York Times. Pointe Magazine.

Macfadden Performing Arts Media. Retrieved April 16, Huffington Post. Retrieved January 29, Horror Entertainment, LLC.

MTV News. Retrieved August 1, Shock Till You Drop. December 11, Archived from the original on December 14, Retrieved January 3, Archived from the original on April 14, Retrieved September 18, The Hollywood Reporter.

The Huffington Post. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 8, Cinema Blend. Retrieved December 12, Independent Film Channel.

Archived from the original on November 30, I am sure that the failure to give this book five or six stars the possibility of a six star rating might itself be something of a Black Swan is due to my own marginal intellect.

The author has made it clear that any other explanation would be entirely unpredictable. View all 31 comments. This is a great book.

And, to take a page from Taleb, anyone who doesn't think so is wrong. No, no, there are a number of problems with the book.

A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily strong This is a great book.

To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily stronger because of it.

However, this along with other problems are mere quibbles relative to the strengths of this book and, I think it's worth noting that many of the negative reviews on this site base their hostile reactions to Taleb on just such insignificant trifles.

The Black Swan deals with the fascinating topic of the nature uncertainty and approaches it from a variety of intellectual angles, mainly the psychological blocks that we are both born with and have created for ourselves that prevent our understanding of the improbable: the narrative fallacy and the problem of induction the tenuous relationship of cause and effect ; our reliance on flawed mathematical models; the expect problem.

Each one of these discussions reinforces his main argument but captivate independently as they are insights to the way we process information. Taleb also references numerous thinkers that are not as well known in the popular consciousness and provides wonderful anecdotes and examples from their life and work that illustrate his points and entertain the reader.

Many other reviewers comment on the Taleb's unique style: arrogant and aggressive. Just because he's arrogant, however, doesn't mean he's wrong--this man has spent most of his life dedicated to this subject and it shows.

And his antagonistic style seems appropriate--it's hard to go against the establishment, even if your goal is truth; people aren't going to believe you.

He attacks the Nobel Prize in Economics because according to him, the financial models created by the prizewinners that that Swedish committee has rewarded have done a great deal of harm to people's understanding of the true economic risks involved.

These are the exclamations of narrow-minded thinkers who have yet to examine the evidence thoroughly. I, personally, found Taleb's style to be amusing and engaging.

It reflects a true passion and dedication to the beliefs he expounds in the book, beliefs that are worth some attention.

If we live in a time of uncertainty, it's a good thing to understand what that really means. View all 10 comments. Jun 21, rmn rated it liked it Shelves: financial-math-non-fiction.

I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens. Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions.

The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think. The author, Taleb, rails against economics, most philosophers, and the way we incorporate news to allow us to make sense of events and everyday happenings.

He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in stat I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens.

He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in statistics and at the same time eviscerating the nobel prize winners who got us to where we are today.

While the author has valid points, his writing style oscillates between boring, repetitive, and just plain bad. The author does understand his limitation to some degree and even suggests skipping certain chapters, though to be honest, the chapters he recommends skipping I found to be the best in the book.

I do recommend this for the ideas. View all 12 comments. Oct 27, Mark rated it did not like it Shelves: non-fiction.

First, a disclaimer. I am, professionally, a statistician. I do not have a Ph. I work at a factory where I assist engineers in better understanding how processes work and making things better.

I generally feel that I make a worthwhile contribution to the world. I bought and read this book because it was critical of statisticians.

I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'y First, a disclaimer. I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'yes men' in the form of books and actively seek to challenge my personal beliefs through the things I read and study.

Also, the only fields of statistics that I have ever avoided are time series forecasting and actuarial science incredibly boring. NNT as he loves to refer to himself in the book is an idiot.

Actually, he's worse than an idiot, he's a charlatan of the worst order. If I were NNT I wouldn't have to defend that statement at all, pretentious phonies reading this to feel intelligent about themselves would nod in agreement at the 'wisdom' I've laid at their feet.

One of the first things criticized in this book is the narrative for conveying information. Yet that is all NNT does in this book is lay out narrative.

No philosopher is quoted, no idea co-opted without some flourishing tale of how they were never appreciated despite their obvious intelligence or of how they were recognized for their genius but the cold, unending march of human forgetfulness relegated them to the annals of history until someone else rediscovered the idea and NNT bought the original book at a used bookstore in some non-American city that has an air of academia to it.

Later in the book, NNT makes one of his few cogent points I'll chalk it up to luck on his part. Silent evidence is a major problem everywhere we look and in every field sadly.

The negative studies are almost never published, the failures are not chronicled, etc The hard thing about silent evidence is that it's almost never available at all and we rarely recognize that we're not seeing it.

Yet NNT frequently ignores silent evidence. He discusses casinos and all the money they put into preventing cheating something that, apparently, comes from mediocristan and is easily predictable but mocks them for doing so because the biggest losses they'd suffered in recent history had nothing to do with cheating.

Apparently NNT failed to recognize that perhaps the systems in place so effectively prevented cheating that it was no longer a potential source of lost income.

Perhaps if he had looked further back in time he would have seen the financial cost of cheating.

It would be like criticizing a store for employing anti-shoplifting techniques when their biggest loses came from a lost shipment, a dishonest accountant and some other unpredictable and essentially unavoidable problem.

The suggestion from NNT must be that dealing with the things we can is stupid and we should focus on the things that we cannot predict and therefore cannot prevent.

NNT spends a whole chapter discussing luck and how every successful economist, banker, investor or other scalable professional is successful not due to skill, but to luck.

I'm not going to debate that as the entire premise renders coherent arguments null and void you cannot disprove the assertion that someone is chronically lucky, well played NNT.

However, this luck doesn't apply to his favorite philosophers. NNT spends a chapter lauding Poincare for being a 'thinking mathematician' because he didn't rely on rigor, but rather intuition.

NNT lambastes other mathematicians for criticizing Poincare by calling his techniques 'hand waving' which he decides is due to childishness on the part of the other 'nerd' mathematicians.

But success due to intuition is not success due to skill and is therefore not success to be recognized or rewarded at least, that's the case with bankers and investors.

NNT doesn't understand the reason why mathematicians and other 'hard' scientists don't like hand waving is because there's no way to know if it's success or luck, it isn't repeatable and it isn't verifiable.

Also, NNT ignores the silent evidence of intuition. He looks to Poincare as a savior and steward of his profession while ignoring the unmarked graves of all the other 'thinking mathematicians' who failed miserably in their intuitive hand waving.

For all of his experimental 'proof' offered in defense of claims about how we understand, learn and process things, NNT never gives more than one study as evidence although he will claim, without a footnote or other reference that many other studies have verified that particular claim.

He accepts these theories as facts and bases large portions of his argument upon them, yet he criticizes doctors, biologists and other scientists for using experimental evidence to make theories on why things work instead of simply accepting that they do work.

How many times does he bring up 'anchoring' as a theory for why things happen, yet he cannot accept the fact that perhaps birds and humans use different brain regions to perform similar tasks?

The study didn't prove that complex models are no different from simple ones, just that not all of them were better but no claim that they were ever worse.

So why would I get rid of something that doesn't do worse but could do better? If I buy a lottery ticket that is guaranteed to make me my money back and could make me more than what I paid, why wouldn't I buy it?

Now, I understand that predicting the future is foolhardy, and I'm not saying that it's something we should put a lot of stock into pun intended but past information can give us a general idea about the future, even if it doesn't give us a great one.

NNT passes himself off as some cool headed, rational thinker who sees beyond the noise and chaos of the world and invites the world to join him on the greener side of the pasture.

But nearly all of his arguments are based on contradictions with other arguments that he has made. Further, the remaining arguments that are defensible are impossible to disprove because they impossible to prove.

Much like a believing person who argues that without empirical proof of man evolving from lower life or of the big bang, the scientist cannot be right, NNT argues that because models are not perfect, no one can use them to any benefit.

The book is altogether too long given the core point of the book which is this: the most important things that happen or that don't happen are unknowable.

Because we cannot predict the future with certainty or even near certainty, we should not even try but rather just do whatever the heck we want because sometimes it's just as good.

View all 16 comments. The first time through, I listened to this book with my husband, usually while I was cooking. Although I tried to stop and mark important passages, I ended up thinking the book was not very systematic.

The second time through, chapter by chapter, the method in his madness is more apparent. I continued to think Taleb is more a popularizer than an innovator.

But even if so, that's not so shabby. He's trying to revolutionize the way we think, and the more we rehearse that, the better.

Nassim Nichol The first time through, I listened to this book with my husband, usually while I was cooking. While they both have us investigating our thinking, for Kahneman, it's to make us own up, while Taleb has more direct emphasis on avoiding disaster.

He would like for us to realize our overuse of normal-curve thinking, which makes us minimize risk and have no expectations out of the ordinary: like the turkey whose experience all goes to show how human beings love him and care about him and prove it by feeding him--until Thanksgiving day arrives and he's dinner.

The normal curve tells us that the further out from the mean we go, the rarity of unusual events rapidly increases.

Fine--when it applies. We are not going to meet any foot tall people or anyone living to years old. But the normal curve often doesn't apply. We can't predict which books will be best sellers or how how the sales count will go on one of them.

We can't predict when a war will occur or just how one will transpire. The world is not fair. Unfairness and inequality are no epiphenomena but part and parcel of reality.

Even in evolution, the fittest survive, thrive, and have more offspring. Take writing: before literacy, every town crier and performer had his day.

With written methods, all the little guys are out of work. Then, one book may become a bestseller. It leaves even the other books in the dust.

And when the author of the bestseller writes another book, it'll get more attention than those who didn't write a bestseller.

When we think normal curves apply but they don't, we are confusing what the world is like with how we would like it to be.

We are shoving reality into the Procrustean bed of our idealized thinking. That distorts our vision of reality. By keeping an open mind, at least, we won't be walking blindly into risk.

We can't prevent the unexpected, but we can at least turn the black swans into grey swans. We are like the 13th fairy at the Sleeping Beauty's christening.

We can't do away with the angry fairy's curse, but we can mitigate it. Grey swan, not black. The difficulty with many kinds of prognosticators in our world is that they are spinning theories that purport to predict, but their theories are stories, and their stories connect the plot points and only sound as though they are predictive.

We are lulled or, even worse, misled. We listen according to our preferred belief system. We listen to what we want to hear: confirmatory listening.

We actively cherry pick reality to make it fit what we want to believe. The solution? Try the opposite, finding something that doesn't fit.

A plethora of confirmatory evidence is exactly what the turkey had before Thanksgiving. Taleb lauds two unexpected types of practitioners: military people and financial managers.

They will know if their predictions are wrong or right. If they are wrong, they'll have to face the music. Their predictions matter. Not so the world of talking heads and stuffed shirts: they just adjust their stories and keep on going.

What those stories are, are predictions of the past. If you see an ice cube sitting on a table you can predict the future: it will melt into a little puddle of water.

But if you see a puddle on the table, and that's all you see, there could be a thousand stories of what it is and how it came to be there. The correct explanation may be or one which will never be found.

It could be that angry old fairy, melted. As I said, most of the stories are not explanations. But theories are sticky.

Once you have one you have a hard time seeing beyond it remembering that sometimes no theory is best, if the theory is wrong. So, he recommends an empirical approach with art and craft, a less grand theory, and always an eye toward outcomes.

Right at the end it occurred to me that this is religion. He tells you how to sustain yourself in the absence of worldly support, how to stand up to others and say your piece, how to wait and be patient, and about the merits of surrounding yourself with like-minded souls.

To close, a rousing rendition of Kipling's If He can't teach like Kahneman, but he gets it said. View all 89 comments.

Dec 21, Greg rated it it was ok. This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it. Taleb's jeremiad is directed against - well - everyone who is not as enlightened as he is.

I trudged through this book because - well - everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it. There, I did it.

Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb. And now, me. Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his v This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it.

Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas.

A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models. But the significant, life-changing, society-changing, events are outside the Gaussian.

Things like They belong to Extremestan, not Mediocristan. The ideas are interesting. Many are quite compelling. But it really seems Taleb's main point is "everyone else is an idiot.

I did find quite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth. We are so drawn to narrative, that all retained "true" facts must fit into our constructed narrative.

Other data are ignored or made to fit. We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story. And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story.

Mmm - God himself, in the person of Jesus, communicated truth in parables - narratives! No one else seems to have caught on.

Except Taleb, of course. View 2 comments. Aug 23, Daniel rated it it was ok. I stopped reading this because the author is so pompous and annoying.

View all 5 comments. Jan 26, Ted rated it liked it Shelves: psychology , philosophy , math , economics , reviews-liked. Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book.

As I read it I was constantly alternating between "Wow, that's a really great insight, a great way of presenting it" and "Gee, who doesn't realize that?

It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts "quants" working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early ; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that foll Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book.

It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts "quants" working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early ; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that followed.

The problem with all their quantitative analysis was, as Taleb rightly points out, that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell-curve events, and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome.

But "Black Swan" events very rare, not even things we think about happening, and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings do occur, they are of course unpredictable, and they can have massive effects.

Some sorts of unpredictable events such as unexpected conflict flareups, deaths of influential national leaders are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about, and they are not really unexpected - only the timing is in doubt.

But really, other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict unpredictable things on a daily basis, these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future.

No one that I know owns a crystal ball. As the esteemed Donald not Trump, the other one pointed out, in one of his rare truly insightful comments, there are the unknowns that we know about, and the unknowns that we don't know about.

It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live. Of course, they also live in Australia, which is how the phrase got its meaning. Jul 17, Will rated it it was ok.

This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written A The ideas There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar.

His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context.

It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impa This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written A The ideas There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar.

It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impact.

She damned near steals the show. That's right, in a move where she shares screen with Natalie Portman, AND Vincent Cassel she is able to not only hold her own, but walk away with some scenes.

The interplay between her wild, unrestrained Lilly, and Portman's frightened, tightly wound Nina creates a brilliant external tension to match, and at times overpower, the internal tension that lies at the very core of Nina.

I have been a fan of Aronofsky's work since I saw "Pi" on it's original theatrical run I think I was the only person in the theater for that midnight show , and he has yet to disappoint.

He has a definite point of view and a thematic core that runs through his work. Thematically, this is in keeping with most of Aronofsky's work.

It's about control and the loss of that control. What happens when a perfectionist control freak is in a position where she HAS to let go of that control?

What takes over when she does let go? In typical fashion, Aronofsky shows us that sometimes in striving to get what we want, we risk losing a part of us that we may never be able to get back, and don't realize how desperately we need.

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Alternate Versions. Rate This. A committed dancer struggles to maintain her sanity after winning the lead role in a production of Tchaikovsky's "Swan Lake".

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The Black Swan

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Swan Lake – Entrée and Adage from the Black Swan pas de deux (The Royal Ballet) Statt fundierter Fachkräfte sind oft loyale Trump-Anhänger in Vermisstenfall Stellen Walking Dead Staffel 2 worden. Lanes Tanzauftritte sind uncredited. Klima und Umwelt. Das Publikum ist begeistert. Andrew Weisblum.

The Black Swan "Was ist ein Black Swan-Ereignis?"

Der Film sollte ursprünglich in Frankreich spielen und in Bulgarien gedreht werden, was aber unter anderem aus Kostengründen verworfen wurde. Christof Leisinger, New York Sie entwickelt eine Paranoia und glaubt, dass Lily, die neue Tänzerin im Ballettensemble, ihr die Rolle wegnehmen wolle. Robin Pilcher Schäfer Schwer verwundet begibt sie sich für den letzten Akt auf die Bühne. Bild von Alina Kuptsova auf Pixabay. Der Kritik Talebs an statistischen Modellen wurde insoweit widersprochen, Marlene Name Statistik auch ermögliche, drohende Schwarze Schwäne zu identifizieren. Clint Mansell. Taleb bezeichnet wesentliche Entdeckungen, geschichtliche Ereignisse und künstlerische Errungenschaften als schwarze Schwäne.

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Der Begriff an sich wurde weniger in Frage gestellt. Mehr zum Thema. Im Jahr schrieb der Essayist, Forscher und ehemalige Finanzmathematiker Nassim Nicholas Taleb sein Buch „The Black Swan“. Taleb. Was unsere Mandanten über uns denken.. The Black Swan Gesellschaft für Unternehmensentwicklung mbH - Business-Coaching. powered by Google.

She lives with her obsessive former ballerina mother Erica Hershey who exerts a suffocating control over her. But Nina has competition: a new dancer, Lily Kunis , who impresses Leroy as well.

Swan Lake requires a dancer who can play both the White Swan with innocence and grace, and the Black Swan, who represents guile and sensuality.

As the two young dancers expand their rivalry into a twisted friendship, Nina begins to get more in touch with her dark side - a recklessness that threatens to destroy her.

Written by Fox Searchlight Pictures. I was lucky enough to see this at the Austin Film Festival and was absolutely blow away. Aronofsky is, in many ways, like Nick Cave.

You know going in that you are going to get something gritty, raw, and real. You know that, even if it's good, it's going to be hard to process.

But when he gets a hold of something, really gets a hold of it, you won't be able to look away, no matter how hard it is to watch.

He is a singular filmmaker in the regard that he can create something that is both visceral and cerebral at the same time.

Others can do this, but few as well. What he does is never hollow, shallow, or empty, it is always dense, deep, and rich with everything that makes film great.

In many ways this is the most Aronofsky of his films. His style is spot on and works exquisitely with the world he is presenting.

It's surprising because he normally shows the dirty, gritty, and ugly places, where as everything in this film is clean and polished.

But don't let that fool you, he saved the dirt and grit for the characters. It's remarkable that the man who was able to show the sensitive, and vulnerable side of a wrestler is also able to show the brutal and hard side of a ballerina?

For starters, this film looks amazing. The production design, specifically the use of black and white in contrast don't spend time looking for this, it's everywhere and you will miss something if you do does it's job without feeling invasive.

The lighting is brilliant, as is the staging of the dance scenes. I'm still stunned that the same eye that brought the grainy subway bathroom of "Pi" to life is the same eye that brings all this rich and beautiful color so clearly to the screen.

He also does a brilliant job of creating the world that these characters inhabit. This film reminded me of all the terrible parts of my theater days.

The backstabbing, the trash talking, and the two faced nature of that world is portrayed with a deft and brilliant touch. There is a constant fear that you are one mistake away from losing not only your part, but your future parts as well.

You feel like you are a part of this world, that he pressure of it is part of your world. The camera work is great, if a little typical of Aronofsky at times we see the backs of heads quite a bit, it works, but you see it a lot , but it is very affective.

The somewhat jittery, close hand-held shots are perfect and pull you deeper into this world than may be comfortable. Then there are the name performances.

Of the name actors you mostly get what you expect. Portman, Cassel, Hershey, and Rider are outstanding. The only real shock, for me anyway, is Mila Kunis.

I know her as Jackie from "That 70's Show," and nothing else. She damned near steals the show. That's right, in a move where she shares screen with Natalie Portman, AND Vincent Cassel she is able to not only hold her own, but walk away with some scenes.

The interplay between her wild, unrestrained Lilly, and Portman's frightened, tightly wound Nina creates a brilliant external tension to match, and at times overpower, the internal tension that lies at the very core of Nina.

I have been a fan of Aronofsky's work since I saw "Pi" on it's original theatrical run I think I was the only person in the theater for that midnight show , and he has yet to disappoint.

He has a definite point of view and a thematic core that runs through his work. Thematically, this is in keeping with most of Aronofsky's work.

It's about control and the loss of that control. What happens when a perfectionist control freak is in a position where she HAS to let go of that control?

What takes over when she does let go? In typical fashion, Aronofsky shows us that sometimes in striving to get what we want, we risk losing a part of us that we may never be able to get back, and don't realize how desperately we need.

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Release Dates. Official Sites. Company Credits. Technical Specs. Plot Summary. Plot Keywords. It will reaffirm what you already know.

To the rest of you: this book will reaffirm what you thought you knew when you were 5 or I put this book down after the first chapter, but thought I would give it another chance, that I was being unfair.

When I read the second chapter which is a metaphor for w If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book.

When I read the second chapter which is a metaphor for what Taleb thinks is him I puked in my shirt. This man is the most conceited person I think I've discovered through reading his garbage hypothesis.

If I met Taleb, I would recommend that he read some other theories on random variables why does he use Gaussian distribution as the only example of random distribution?

He apparently was sleeping though these discussions. Thank God I am not an editor. View all 11 comments. Feb 21, Bonnie rated it did not like it Shelves: nonfiction.

Most importantly, perhaps, was that it was dull and a chore to read. In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother , like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one le This felt like it was trying to be the next The Tipping Point or Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything and just failed spectacularly, on all counts.

In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother , like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one less chapter to slog through.

I finished it out of a perverse desire to finish things, nothing more. My biggest complaint with the book, though, was that the author came across as a giant tool.

He loves to use sarcastic quotes to criticize things like "prestigious" institutions despite mentioning multiple times that he himself attended the prestigious Wharton School.

Whether his hatreds are justified or not, the way he does it comes across as terribly juvenile and he never misses a cheap shot.

He appears to see himself as some kind of persecuted genius, taking on the establishment. He loves nothing more than describing how some so-called "expert" goes apopleptic when confronted with his brilliant Black Swan idea which he keeps reminding you he came up with at the age of 22 and fantasizes about dropping rats down overly serious people's shirts to watch them squirm is he actually 12 or just a bastard?

Why does he have to make her up? The publishing industry is littered with these people, it would be simple to use a real person.

But not only does he make her up and does not even bother to tell you she is fake until the following chapter but he gives several pages to her biography, invents fake friends and THEIR biographies and then comes back to her AGAIN, all with no real relevance.

These fictional characters could've been cut out entirely or replaced with real people and not affected the book at all. They are simply another one of his petty self-indulgences.

I could have saved time, money and my blood pressure level and probably been more entertained by simply reading the book's entry on Wikipedia.

The central idea is good, but the execution oh-so-isn't. View all 3 comments. Jan 25, Gendou rated it did not like it Shelves: humor , fiction.

This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented. Taleb a classic science denier; oscillating between anti-science and pseudo-intellectual arguments.

When some scientist says something he likes, he misrepresents it to fit his narrative. When the scientific consensus is against him, he cries grand conspiracy theory or slanders the methods of science.

His argumentation in this book is like a case study in logical fallacies and crank red flags. Special pleading. Ignoring disconfirming evidence This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented.

Ignoring disconfirming evidence like the exceptions to the professed rule. Straw man. To see this logical fallacy in action, simply reply "Speak for yourself, asshole!

The reputation of an author is judged by their published work, but the products of science are ideas. These ideas are, in the scientific literature, judged primarily by their content.

In science, a humble patent clerk can become the biggest name in theoretical physics by having the right idea.

The accusation of tit-for-tat citation is ludicrous. Speak for yourself, Taleb! He accuses whole fields of study, like economics, of being rife with mathematical theatrics.

If that's true I'd love to read about it. But he offers no evidence for this, and is more guilty of this particular offense than any person I know.

Which is an area of mathematics. Very much the mathematician's business! View all 13 comments. Jun 23, Heidi The Reader rated it liked it Shelves: the-numinous-book-club , non-fiction.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses "black swans", unexpected and life-changing events, and how life is far more uncertain than most believe it to be.

He also examines, in-depth, how we fool ourselves into believing reality is otherwise by various means like confirmation bias we look for evidence to support our existing beliefs and narrative fallacies the tendency to describe existence using linear stories when reality is far more complicated.

Mix in a heaping dose of storytelling and autobiograp Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses "black swans", unexpected and life-changing events, and how life is far more uncertain than most believe it to be.

Mix in a heaping dose of storytelling and autobiographical information and you get The Black Swan. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist!

Basically, beyond black swans having a larger impact on reality than we realize they do, this book can be simplified way down to "beware of because" and "know what you don't know".

And we suck at predicting the future, for a variety of reasons, but partially because it is impossible to project future events from historical ones.

All I am saying is that is it not so simple; be suspicious of the "because" and handle it with care — particularly in situations where you suspect silent evidence.

Taleb gives an illustrative example of silent evidence from ancient history of a philosopher being presented an argument that a group of sailors survived a shipwreck because they prayed.

The philosopher wonders how many of the sailors who drowned were also praying. The drowned sailors, you see, are the silent evidence.

Biologically, Taleb says, human beings are not set up to be deep thinkers and are fooled by a variety of logical fallacies.

This is only a problem because, as time goes on, humanity has less running away to do from things trying to eat us and more dealing with the complexities of modern existence.

But by remembering "to know what we don't know" and understanding some of the limitations built into our brains by memory and logical fallacies, we can be prepared to make better decisions than before.

Or, at least, we'll have a better grasp on how risky and unknown life is. Anyway, this book certainly gave me a lot to think about.

The part that struck me the most is when Taleb applies his black swan idea to careers and how this uncertainty applies particularly to authors and artists.

For every J. Rowling, there will be thousands of writers who never make that break through. I started wondering how many extraordinary books I will never get to read because of this phenomena.

The author's tone throughout the book, slightly irreverent, didn't annoy me as much as it seems to have bothered other readers.

I enjoyed learning a new way to look at reality, but, as I mentioned before, this is a dense read and I wouldn't consider it "fun" reading either.

It may appeal most to philosophers and anyone who wants to consider new ways to view reality. Mar 18, Rob rated it did not like it.

A lot of blogs said a lot of nice things about this book, and from this I conclude that most of those bloggers either A strictly read the executive summary or B only read other bloggers.

This is a pretty terrible book, and while it has one or two good ideas, they are better and more rigorously expressed in books like "Sway" or "The Drunkard's Walk" than they are in this shameless exercise in self promotion.

The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lum A lot of blogs said a lot of nice things about this book, and from this I conclude that most of those bloggers either A strictly read the executive summary or B only read other bloggers.

The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lump everything he doesn't understand into the same bucket would be forgivable from an author possessed of wit and charm.

Sadly, we get neither, and no small portion of the book is dedicated to elaborations on the author's high opinion of himself and low opinions of virtually everyone else.

If you are thinking about reading the book because you've heard the term "A Black Swan" in an interesting context, I can only attempt to wave my arms in frantic warning.

The eponymous black swan is an event which is highly unlikely to happen, so unlikely as to be unpredictable, but which happens anyway because when a lot of things happen and they do then it becomes nearly certain that some of them will be wildly unlikely.

The greater the range of possible outcomes, the more disruptive this black swan will be. In short, if you grasp normal distribution, you already know this.

This is very much an "Everyone But Me Is Stupid" sort of book, and as such it is guaranteed to have a certain appeal to readers who share that sentiment.

If that's the case then it's probably a good read, but otherwise I really strongly endorse any other book on the topic.

I love reading and I rarely criticise authors. I think it takes discipline to complete a book and thus authors deserves respect.

This review is my first negative one and hopefully my last. I buddy read this which was the only positive aspect. We read about a chapter a day and every time we discussed it, we would be at a loss for words.

I heard such great reviews about this book highlighting that it was quite controversial. Generally i seek out anything controversial but this author is just a reb I love reading and I rarely criticise authors.

Generally i seek out anything controversial but this author is just a rebel without a cause. It was a perfect example of the dunning kruger effect which is a concept that the author refers too in the book.

In fact he even targets every person with an MBA. The lowest point was when he insulted autistic people encouraging them to send someone else to socialise at a party because apparently he is 'ceratin' that autistic people are incapable of socialising themselves.

Sorry I may have given the wrong stats deliberately but I'm sure that the author won't mind because who needs stats anyway. I honestly didn't see the point of the book.

In the beginning of some chapters, he would agree with some mathematician or philosopher but by the end of the the very same chapter, he does a complete sorry there goes my reference to maths again.

For someone who is preaching about the fact that most things can't be predicted with certainty which is rather obvious , he is fairly 'certain' about his viewpoint.

In fact he is so certain that he literally created his own aproach to randomness. If you are interested in arrogant ignorance, please read this book.

This is by far the worst non fiction book I have read but it did give my friend and I plenty to laugh about so it wasn't a complete waste of time.

I highly recommend reading this for pure entertainment. Feb 08, carol. Not as overbearingly arrogant as others claim; in fact, often very self depreciating.

More seriously, his writing style is terribly confusing, made worse by my own unfamiliarity with the subject and his insistence on personal jargon standing in for concepts.

Very anectdotal as well as making use of "thought experiments" to illustrate concepts that could have done with more explanation and less story.

Yes, I get his point that stories help us learn, but I would argue that stories work best as anal Not as overbearingly arrogant as others claim; in fact, often very self depreciating.

Yes, I get his point that stories help us learn, but I would argue that stories work best as analogies on the mythical or fable level, or when a single analogy perfectly illustrates an entire principle such as Scroedinger's cat.

Update: cannot get through this muddled mess of a book. Surrendering and returning to the library. Mar 26, Neil rated it really liked it Shelves: mba , logic , philosophy.

Okay, let's see if I got it straight An anti-academic academic weaves a non-narrative narrative about predicting the unpredictable into the theory that rigid theories are bad.

Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening. Something like that. Taleb's observations on the expectations and biases we hold, especially when estimating risk or uncertainty, are pretty dead on.

His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probabilit Okay, let's see if I got it straight His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability events can carry a high-impact.

He's almost certainly right that we over-apply the "bell curve" and other normalized frequency distributions, with the consequence of underestimating the probability of very rare events.

But he's kind of a jerk about it. If you don't mind that kind of thing I don't, really , then this is a pretty good read.

If you've thought along these lines before, though, don't expect to be startled. There are no magic recipes for success in Taleb's "Extremistan" here, just some common sense principles that you can pretty much derive from the first 50 pages of the book.

My only other complaint--and it's not one I can really spell out with any confidence--is this: I came away with this diffuse sense of overconfidence from Taleb I'd just package it with a single grain of salt.

Black Swan is easily one of the most challenging books I have read. Reading it felt like being part of a revolution. Difficult to comprehend during the first reading, it attacks the application of the Gaussian bell curve in Modern Portfolio Management Theory viciously and having read it a lot recently, it makes me feel like a fool.

The book is a treasure trove if you are a quizzer. Contains a hell lot of names philosophers, economists, mathematicians.. Makes you think hard and gives you a lot Black Swan is easily one of the most challenging books I have read.

Makes you think hard and gives you a lot to build upon. Has invoked a strong urge to read more philosophy.

May 18, Misha rated it it was ok Shelves: tried-to-read. This book is a weird mix of novel ideas, bragging, and pseudo-science. Taleb makes a strong case for his theory of black swans.

It's an interesting and valuable theory but it's also one that could be communicated in a short conversation and does not need a whole book to contain it.

Taleb fills the rest of the pages by bragging about his own success and ridiculing established philosophers, economists, and anyone else he can think of.

I'm not in any position to judge his opinions of these people, b This book is a weird mix of novel ideas, bragging, and pseudo-science.

I'm not in any position to judge his opinions of these people, but I know that he really drops the ball with his math, which is amateur at best and misleading at its worst.

For example, on page of the hardcover edition he writes: "Take a random sample of any two people in the U. I stopped reading this book shortly after that page.

View 1 comment. Aug 24, Riku Sayuj rated it really liked it. Landmark book for me as it pointed me to Chaos. Dec 09, Todd rated it did not like it Recommends it for: Nerds.

I only read the first 13 pages of this book, plus the prologue, but that was enough. For a man who claims he is not writing an autobiography, he really works hard to impress the reader.

He adds little bits of information in I only read the first 13 pages of this book, plus the prologue, but that was enough. He adds little bits of information in parentheses, between dashes, and then tacks some on with footnotes, all in some bizarre attempt to sound funny or cute or intelligent, but he really just sounds like a jerk.

For a guy writing a book that claims "what we don't know is more important that we do know," he really wants the reader to know that he sure knows a whole lot.

He also tries to be really conversational and funny, but he isn't funny, and he keeps coming up with examples some good, some bad to illustrate and re-illustrate his points.

For better or worse, though, he does have a good point - black swans are out there and can change everything we know in instant, and some people refuse to acknowledge or let others know about these potential swans.

Unfortunately, it may have been the worst beginning of any book I have ever read The use of mathematics in social sciences overestimates what we know observed past events and underestimates what we don't probable future events : too little science papers succeeded to make near accurate predictions; and successful inventions are almost always accidental.

Thaleb proposed Mandelbrotian approach against Gaussian to which detail i am not technically capable to comprehend. To statistics-illiterate like me, Black Swan is highly persuasive.

Thaleb's humor is never without satire and his case illustrations are sometimes fictious on a regular basis i would say it's a weakness, on this, i'm open to suggestion.

Thaleb is clearly in that category. In a bell-curve, he would place himself in an extreme place either far left or far right , but that is highly improbable considering bell-curving is against his belief.

Feb 12, Tanja Berg rated it it was ok Shelves: psychology-psychiatry , science , non-fiction , pearl-ruled. Wall-banger at page This might not be the final rating.

I entertain the possibility of picking this up again, but at the moment I cannot bear the thought. The author is an annoying schmuck and that overshadows the concepts, which are quite interesting.

You want to learn something useful within the same genre, pick up "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman instead.

I have to admit that this book was a guilty pleasure, I really enjoyed it and some of the arguments presented on it are so interesting, but in general this is an uneven book, with a lot of generalizations that come out of nowhere and not so much intellectual background in elaborating its main thesis.

Jan 07, Peter Pete Mcloughlin rated it it was amazing Shelves: complexity , both , to , bce-toce , to , intellectual-history , world-history , general-science , toce , to I like Anti-fragile the most with the Black Swan a close second.

Black Swan stylistically appeals to me as nonfiction reader but anti-fragile delivers more goods but both deliver nonetheless. This book is like a nice cup of dark roasted coffee.

A bit bitter for those who are unfamiliar with the Black Swan brand of uncertainty, yet disconcertingly alerting for those who have encountered this rare blend.

The Black Swan glides through deep philosophical discussions and clever humor as effortlessly as its namesake. I was deeply enthralled by Nassim Nicholas Taleb's depth of erudition and wisdom concerning the philosophy of uncertainty.

The second edition of which I was privileged to read This book is like a nice cup of dark roasted coffee. The second edition of which I was privileged to read contained an extra 70 pages of essays replete with great gems as well as technical knowledge.

Having a background in finance and having read Complexity by M. Mitchell Waldrop helped me to see deeply into what the author decided to add in this edition.

As for the rest of the book there is probably nothing that I can say that hasn't already been said by many other reviews.

A great book for those who are interested in risk and uncertainty. Nov 29, David rated it it was ok Shelves: read-in Nassim Taleb's earlier book "Fooled by Randomness" was enormously successful - deservedly so, in my opinion.

Unfortunately, this second book is a complete disappointment. Despite its length, it adds very little of interest to the material in the first book.

Much of it is a rambling and indulgent rehash of ideas already developed adequately in the first book. If you are looking for fresh insight, spare your money.

Taleb is a very smart guy. In the first book, he wrote fluidly, clearly, without con Nassim Taleb's earlier book "Fooled by Randomness" was enormously successful - deservedly so, in my opinion.

In the first book, he wrote fluidly, clearly, without condescending to the reader. Unfortunately, this sequel does not manage to avoid a self-congratulatory smugness, which makes it less fun to read than the earlier book.

Recommendation: "Fooled by Randomness" is a book which should be read by everyone. Give "The Black Swan" a miss.

Shelves: economics , got-rid-of. This book "just wrote itself," Taleb says early on. I believe him. Rarely do you read anything so rambling, bouncing from anecdote to anecdote, with such wack-ass headings: Saw Another Red Mini!

On the internet this is called clickbait, and once you've clicked and realized how shallow the resulting story is, or how it This book "just wrote itself," Taleb says early on.

On the internet this is called clickbait, and once you've clicked and realized how shallow the resulting story is, or how it has little to do with its heading, you're pissed.

I suppose it's at least somewhat true that we undervalue the rare, high-profile, hard to predict event the black swan.

But the book was overlong and boring. Taleb should have condensed his ideas down to a book half this size.

One entertaining aspect was his disgusting narcissism. Every five pages he praises himself and blasts all the idiots around him.

This is typical: The postcrash years [he's referring to the stock market crash] were entertaining for me, intellectually.

I attended conferences in finance and mathematics of uncertainty; not once did I find a speaker, Nobel or no Nobel, who understood what he was talking about when it came to probability, so I could freak them out with my questions.

They did "deep work in mathematics," but when you asked them where they got their probabilities, their explanations made it clear that they had fallen for the ludic fallacy - there was a strange cohabitation of technical skills and absence of understanding that you find in idiot savants.

View all 4 comments. Apr 18, Owlseyes rated it really liked it Shelves: we-concoct-an-explanation , psychologist-philip-tetlock , that-makes-it-appear-less-random , we-don-t-acknowledge-them , the-melting-ice-cube , is-covidblackest-black , unknown-unknown-are-black-swans , induction-problem , adventurer-giacomo-casanova , grey-swan-are-known-unknowns.

I'm not sure I agree with Nassim. The Covid19 is globally massive, was predictable by some and, surely, "darker than Vantablack".

Dominic Jermey of the Zool "As we travel more on this planet epidemics will be more acute--we will have a germ population dominated by a few numbers and the successful killer will spread vastly more effectively".

Dominic Jermey of the Zoological Society of London Maybe for some it was improbable I mean, for those who insisted "it's just a flu on steroids", or those against lockdowns or "travel bans".

The millions of victims both the dead and the infected didn't and weren't prepared. But even if the coronavirus spread was the result of an accident which might have occurred in a Wuhan lab , there's still an element of prediction Plus, information was blocked.

One might think, once upon a time everybody believed swans were all white. Until Australia was discovered. Then that belief was falsified.

According to Nassim a Black Swan event has 3 characteristics. The author makes the case for this thesis: small number of Black Swans can explain almost everything in the world.

I have my doubts, though. He also suggests that increasing effects of Black Swans in our recent time is due to increasing complexity. He gives plenty of examples some from his own experience as a "quant" and a financial trader of faulty definitions of "risk" in finance; Because they leave aside Black Swans.

So he wonders, "why do we keep focusing on pennies instead of dollars, why, on minutiae instead of general large events? Black Swans come from our misrepresentations on the role likelihood of surprise,..

An antischolar is a skeptical empiricist, as Nassim likes to think of himself. How the Black Swan keeps hiding from us?

Because we are fooled by our emotions and other errors the confirmation error, namely. Even knowledge derived from games is "lethal".

Nassim's analysis of some of the errors the human mind makes, is pertinent. Like, many people do confuse "almost all terrorists are Moslems" for "almost all Moslems are terrorists".

The consequence is an overestimation of 50, times. Unfair, really. And still, I am wondering, there are other birds And colors.

Nassim, I would challenge you to write another series called "Certo", this time around. On the first volume you would focus on Retroactive Epistemology apropos the coronavirus.

As if implementing a sort of variation of the Melting Ice Cube experiment you describe in your book. Who's accountable for the spread of Covid19??

You should focus your epistemological machinery on finding the culprit. Not for money-making purposes. Rather to pursue Truth. There are minds in the West who think there's a panda bear, invisible thus far, doing terrible things.

No insider trading allowed. Mar 23, Marc rated it liked it Shelves: chaos , economics , history , complexity-studies. This book is hyper-interesting, very rich but also super-annoying at the same time.

So much has been written about it, that I am going to limit myself to some essentials. This book is about the absolutely unexpected, the black swan you would never suspect if you only saw white swans all your life.

Taleb, of course, refers to numerous historical examples of things that have come completely out of the blue: the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nine-eleven, major stock market crises and so on.

And of This book is hyper-interesting, very rich but also super-annoying at the same time. And of course also the things in our ordinary life: when you look back, it is usually a succession of unexpected events that keep stuck in your memory and have shaped your life.

The interesting thing about this book is that Taleb does explain in a solid way why we are always surprised by such things. And that is in the first place psychological: we are mentally set up so that we always expect things to go their way as they are now, we assume stability, while reality is very complex and almost unpredictable; our misjudgment is also caused because we expect everything to be very logical and linear, that cause and effect are always very clear, even in advance.

Not so. What's more: we usually strongly oppose warnings about what could go wrong, while - if you look at history - uncertainty is the rule and regularity the exception.

So the problem mainly is situated between our ears. But what is worse: scientists, historians and journalists reinforce that tunnel vision by presenting - in retrospect - plausible explanations, which gives us the impression that if we had sufficient knowledge, we would have been able to estimate everything better and therefore in the future will be able to make the correct estimation, because we know so much more.

Or they make it clear that the circumstances were very exceptional, and that a repetition is as good as impossible and of course they're right: there's almost never a real repetition, every Black Swan is different.

For three, maybe four reasons. The first is that Taleb almost exclusively focuses on the economy, especially the stock market; that makes sense, since he was a stock market trader and therefore gained a lot of experience in that environment, but it narrows the focus substantially.

Two: as the book progresses, Taleb dabs his pen more and more in the purest vitriol against all kinds of scientists, stock market gurus, statisticians and the like, whom he names by name especially Nobel laureates.

According to him they have completely missed the point of reality, by using the wrong methods. It may well be that Taleb is right, that is not what matters to me, it is mainly about the way he presents his criticism: with an arrogance that borders on the unlikely and that only increases as the book progresses.

He may also be right there, but as a reader he completely lost me there. And then there is a fourth objection against this book, which in retrospect is perhaps more important than seems plausible at first glance: all experts, both the reliable and the untrustworthy, to which Taleb refers are And remember especially: Black Swans do exist, but you can arm yourself against them to a very limited extent, just by using common sense, and knowing that - at any moment in your life or in history in general - shit can happen.

With what impact? Readers also enjoyed. About Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker quantitative trader before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and mostly practical problems with probability.

Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human erro Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker quantitative trader before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and mostly practical problems with probability.

In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 50 scholarly papers in statistical physics, statistics, philosophy, ethics, economics, international affairs, and quantitative finance, all around the notion of risk and probability.

His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder "antifragile". Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.

See Wikipedia for more details.

The Black Swan Das Publikum ist begeistert. Nina geht gegen den Willen ihrer Mutter mit in eine Bar, probiert von Lilys Drogen, um entspannter zu werden, und beginnt hemmungslos zu tanzen Das Sacher In Bester Gesellschaft sich im Laufe des Abends mit verschiedenen Männern einzulassen. Juni Stuttgart Weitere Bedeutungen sind unter Black Swan Begriffsklärung aufgeführt. Eines konnten die Menschen dort aber ganz sicher: sie konnten sehr gut beobachten — und Serien Anschauen Online Schlüsse ziehen! Klima und Umwelt. Als wesentliche Inspiration für den Film nannte Kiffer Komödien Aronofsky die Novelle Der Doppelgänger von Fjodor Dostojewskideren zentrales Thema der allmähliche Verlust der eigenen Identität und damit verbunden German Filme Stream eigenen Lebenswelt ist. Eine Weiterverarbeitung, Wiederveröffentlichung oder dauerhafte Speicherung zu gewerblichen Conan 2011 anderen Zwecken ohne vorherige ausdrückliche Erlaubnis von Neue Manta Der Film Stream Zeitung ist nicht gestattet. The Black Swan Vaiana Huhn are simply another one of Hitman Agent 47 Film petty self-indulgences. Retrieved December 11, The Wall Street Journal. Friend Reviews. Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter gave the film a mixed review. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:.

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